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AAG Energy Holdings Limited (2686.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.80 - $4.24$3.47
Multi-Stage$5.69 - $6.26$5.97
Blended Fair Value$4.72
Current Price$1.53
Upside208.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.100.110.080.020.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---43.95%-2.13%40.40%276.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.80%9.02%10.29%6.24%1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,090.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)323.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)767.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.14136.3381.80
Cash Retained (M)767.21767.21767.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.14-136.33-81.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)549.08630.88685.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,384.133,384.133,384.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.80$3.47$4.24
Upside / Downside82.77%127.08%176.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,090.681,079.771,068.971,058.281,047.701,037.221,068.34
Payout Ratio29.66%41.73%53.79%65.86%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)323.46450.54575.05697.02816.49933.50988.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)416.68420.93425.18
Year 2 PV (M)491.84501.93512.12
Year 3 PV (M)551.35568.40585.80
Year 4 PV (M)597.31622.06647.58
Year 5 PV (M)631.58664.46698.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,566.9517,429.6318,327.87
Equity Value (M)19,255.7020,207.4221,197.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,384.133,384.133,384.13
Fair Value$5.69$5.97$6.26
Upside / Downside271.90%290.28%309.39%

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