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China Overseas Property Holdings Limited (2669.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.12 - $194.34$182.13
Multi-Stage$29.15 - $31.91$30.51
Blended Fair Value$106.32
Current Price$5.48
Upside1,840.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.90%0.00%0.160.140.100.070.050.040.040.030.020.00
YoY Growth--13.79%40.41%35.04%44.00%19.05%20.00%34.62%13.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.03%2.33%1.20%0.87%1.24%0.86%1.53%1.20%1.73%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,210.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,250.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)642.04401.28240.77
Cash Retained (M)2,250.942,250.942,250.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-642.04-401.28-240.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,608.901,849.672,010.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,285.043,285.043,285.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.12$182.13$194.34
Upside / Downside1,526.24%3,223.53%3,446.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,210.213,418.873,641.103,877.774,129.824,398.264,530.21
Payout Ratio29.88%41.91%53.93%65.95%77.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.261,432.691,963.612,557.493,220.283,958.434,190.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,333.551,346.191,358.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,701.251,733.661,766.37
Year 3 PV (M)2,062.462,121.672,181.99
Year 4 PV (M)2,417.262,510.222,605.84
Year 5 PV (M)2,765.732,899.313,038.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,471.9989,600.3293,886.65
Equity Value (M)95,752.24100,211.37104,837.69
Shares Outstanding (M)3,285.043,285.043,285.04
Fair Value$29.15$30.51$31.91
Upside / Downside431.90%456.67%482.37%

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