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Definitive Analysis

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Suntory Beverage & Food Limited (2587.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,343.67 - $11,946.77$7,728.49
Multi-Stage$7,496.68 - $8,227.52$7,855.17
Blended Fair Value$7,791.83
Current Price$4,625.00
Upside68.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%0.88%95.0081.0078.0078.0078.0078.0077.0076.0069.0064.00
YoY Growth--17.28%3.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%1.32%10.14%7.81%-26.44%
Dividend Yield--1.92%1.58%1.58%1.67%1.90%1.91%1.48%1.47%1.47%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85,600.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,624.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)46,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,120.0010,700.006,420.00
Cash Retained (M)46,976.0046,976.0046,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,120.00-10,700.00-6,420.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)29,856.0036,276.0040,556.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)309.00309.00309.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share96.62117.40131.25
LTM Dividend per Share125.00125.00125.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share96.62117.40131.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend221.62242.39256.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Fair Value$5,343.67$7,728.49$11,946.77
Upside / Downside15.54%67.10%158.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85,600.0088,187.0990,852.3693,598.1996,427.0199,341.32102,321.56
Payout Ratio45.12%54.10%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,624.0047,706.7457,303.2267,436.1978,129.3189,407.1994,647.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Year 1 PV (M)44,463.1844,899.0045,334.81
Year 2 PV (M)49,776.0650,756.6351,746.76
Year 3 PV (M)54,595.3056,216.4857,869.44
Year 4 PV (M)58,951.7961,297.3263,712.16
Year 5 PV (M)62,874.7466,017.1669,283.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,045,812.692,148,060.582,254,356.42
Equity Value (M)2,316,473.752,427,247.172,542,303.59
Shares Outstanding (M)309.00309.00309.00
Fair Value$7,496.68$7,855.17$8,227.52
Upside / Downside62.09%69.84%77.89%

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