Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sakura Development Co.,Ltd (2539.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$854.16 - $1,006.34$943.09
Multi-Stage$262.05 - $287.42$274.50
Blended Fair Value$608.79
Current Price$48.55
Upside1,153.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.24%19.79%0.330.140.120.110.440.080.540.530.300.23
YoY Growth--133.03%14.76%14.69%-75.90%468.03%-85.60%3.13%74.55%32.00%323.33%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.27%0.53%0.60%2.78%0.63%5.38%5.48%3.55%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,289.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)497.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,792.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,057.96661.22396.73
Cash Retained (M)4,792.654,792.654,792.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,057.96-661.22-396.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,734.704,131.434,395.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.371,045.371,045.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.573.954.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.573.954.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.054.434.68
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$854.16$943.09$1,006.34
Upside / Downside1,659.34%1,842.52%1,972.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,289.785,633.615,999.806,389.786,805.127,247.457,464.88
Payout Ratio9.40%25.52%41.64%57.76%73.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)497.131,437.602,498.243,690.685,027.596,522.716,905.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,356.321,369.181,382.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,223.732,266.082,308.84
Year 3 PV (M)3,099.403,188.383,279.04
Year 4 PV (M)3,983.414,136.604,294.17
Year 5 PV (M)4,875.815,111.315,355.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)258,399.10270,879.87283,838.32
Equity Value (M)273,937.78286,951.43300,458.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.371,045.371,045.37
Fair Value$262.05$274.50$287.42
Upside / Downside439.75%465.39%492.00%

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