Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

C Sun Mfg Ltd. (2467.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.89 - $176.92$121.56
Multi-Stage$129.38 - $141.68$135.42
Blended Fair Value$128.49
Current Price$191.50
Upside-32.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%6.55%2.983.743.032.472.472.471.480.500.001.37
YoY Growth---20.39%23.60%22.40%0.00%0.00%66.67%199.99%0.00%-100.00%-13.33%
Dividend Yield--2.07%2.88%6.27%5.15%5.35%10.38%5.17%1.95%0.00%9.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)764.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)754.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.8195.5057.30
Cash Retained (M)9.469.469.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.81-95.50-57.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-143.35-86.04-47.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.72150.72150.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.95-0.57-0.32
LTM Dividend per Share5.015.015.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.95-0.57-0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.064.444.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$86.89$121.56$176.92
Upside / Downside-54.63%-36.52%-7.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)764.03785.33807.23829.74852.87876.65902.95
Payout Ratio98.76%97.01%95.26%93.50%91.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)754.57761.85768.94775.84782.53788.99835.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)708.13715.09722.04
Year 2 PV (M)664.33677.45690.69
Year 3 PV (M)623.03641.57660.48
Year 4 PV (M)584.09607.39631.37
Year 5 PV (M)547.39574.81603.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,373.5917,193.8518,046.65
Equity Value (M)19,500.5720,410.1621,354.56
Shares Outstanding (M)150.72150.72150.72
Fair Value$129.38$135.42$141.68
Upside / Downside-32.44%-29.29%-26.01%

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