Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (2445.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.40 - $146.68$47.38
Multi-Stage$15.43 - $16.87$16.14
Blended Fair Value$31.76
Current Price$20.60
Upside54.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%-5.70%0.290.270.970.970.540.210.430.480.480.43
YoY Growth--9.96%-72.52%0.03%81.77%159.65%-52.33%-10.00%0.00%11.11%-18.18%
Dividend Yield--1.43%1.23%4.47%4.36%2.46%0.87%1.75%1.95%1.92%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)817.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)325.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)491.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.46102.1661.30
Cash Retained (M)491.45491.45491.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.46-102.16-61.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)327.99389.29430.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,106.671,106.671,106.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Fair Value$25.40$47.38$146.68
Upside / Downside23.31%130.02%612.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)817.28869.26924.55983.361,045.901,112.431,145.80
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)325.83433.71554.00687.83836.441,001.181,059.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Year 1 PV (M)398.51402.29406.07
Year 2 PV (M)467.71476.63485.64
Year 3 PV (M)533.56548.90564.53
Year 4 PV (M)596.18619.14642.75
Year 5 PV (M)655.67687.38720.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,427.6515,125.4515,849.99
Equity Value (M)17,079.2817,859.7918,669.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,106.671,106.671,106.67
Fair Value$15.43$16.14$16.87
Upside / Downside-25.08%-21.66%-18.11%

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