Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd (2418.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.87$0.70
Multi-Stage$1.32 - $1.45$1.38
Blended Fair Value$1.04
Current Price$1.74
Upside-40.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS9.16%0.00%0.040.040.090.030.150.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.29%-51.79%203.82%-79.30%457.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.37%3.56%11.46%2.08%9.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0616.299.77
Cash Retained (M)41.4141.4141.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.06-16.29-9.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3425.1231.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,181.482,181.482,181.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.56$0.70$0.87
Upside / Downside-67.76%-59.53%-49.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.32129.02127.73126.45125.19123.93127.65
Payout Ratio68.23%72.58%76.94%81.29%85.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.9293.6498.27102.79107.22111.54118.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)87.1688.0588.94
Year 2 PV (M)85.1486.8988.65
Year 3 PV (M)82.9085.4688.08
Year 4 PV (M)80.4883.8287.26
Year 5 PV (M)77.9381.9986.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,463.572,591.852,725.42
Equity Value (M)2,877.183,018.063,164.57
Shares Outstanding (M)2,181.482,181.482,181.48
Fair Value$1.32$1.38$1.45
Upside / Downside-24.20%-20.49%-16.63%

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