Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Arabian Company for Agricultural and Industrial Investment (2287.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.15 - $13.63$11.28
Multi-Stage$17.51 - $19.24$18.36
Blended Fair Value$14.82
Current Price$40.10
Upside-63.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.734.212.52
Cash Retained (M)18.6518.6518.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.73-4.21-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9214.4416.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.15$11.28$13.63
Upside / Downside-77.19%-71.87%-66.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6533.3132.9832.6532.3232.0032.96
Payout Ratio44.58%53.66%62.75%71.83%80.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0017.8820.6923.4526.1528.8030.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)16.4416.6116.78
Year 2 PV (M)17.5117.8718.23
Year 3 PV (M)18.2618.8219.40
Year 4 PV (M)18.7319.5020.30
Year 5 PV (M)18.9719.9620.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)435.36458.03481.64
Equity Value (M)525.27550.79577.33
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$17.51$18.36$19.24
Upside / Downside-56.34%-54.22%-52.01%

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