Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Conant Optical Co., Ltd. (2276.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.04 - $21.93$18.37
Multi-Stage$25.53 - $28.07$26.78
Blended Fair Value$22.58
Current Price$34.12
Upside-33.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-18.55%0.00%0.310.150.080.350.000.860.970.000.000.00
YoY Growth--108.75%76.47%-75.74%0.00%-100.00%-10.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%2.29%2.01%9.47%0.00%21.24%24.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)869.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.92108.7065.22
Cash Retained (M)672.03672.03672.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.92-108.70-65.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)498.11563.33606.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.14432.14432.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.301.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.301.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.04$18.37$21.93
Upside / Downside-55.92%-46.16%-35.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)869.60860.90852.29843.77835.33826.98851.79
Payout Ratio22.72%36.18%49.63%63.09%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.57311.43423.01532.31639.39744.28787.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)284.17287.07289.97
Year 2 PV (M)352.18359.40366.70
Year 3 PV (M)404.38416.89429.65
Year 4 PV (M)443.20461.57480.50
Year 5 PV (M)470.73495.24520.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,079.619,552.4110,044.70
Equity Value (M)11,034.2711,572.5812,132.28
Shares Outstanding (M)432.14432.14432.14
Fair Value$25.53$26.78$28.07
Upside / Downside-25.16%-21.51%-17.72%

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