Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Industrial Investment Group (2250.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.53 - $0.75$0.64
Multi-Stage$0.78 - $0.86$0.82
Blended Fair Value$0.73
Current Price$19.16
Upside-96.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.25%5.30%1.070.542.400.630.800.960.810.480.000.64
YoY Growth--98.41%-77.57%278.09%-20.31%-16.67%18.42%67.54%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.33%2.09%9.60%1.63%2.20%5.45%2.95%1.97%0.00%4.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.497.184.31
Cash Retained (M)50.1450.1450.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.49-7.18-4.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.6542.9645.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)706.78706.78706.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.53$0.64$0.75
Upside / Downside-97.23%-96.66%-96.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.4556.8856.3155.7455.1954.6456.27
Payout Ratio12.73%28.18%43.64%59.09%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.3116.0324.5732.9441.1449.1752.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.4314.5714.72
Year 2 PV (M)19.9020.3120.72
Year 3 PV (M)24.0124.7525.51
Year 4 PV (M)26.9828.1029.25
Year 5 PV (M)29.0230.5332.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)438.88461.73485.53
Equity Value (M)553.21579.99607.83
Shares Outstanding (M)706.78706.78706.78
Fair Value$0.78$0.82$0.86
Upside / Downside-95.91%-95.72%-95.51%

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