Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shining Victory Motor Electronic Co., Ltd. (2248.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.21 - $145.26$116.51
Multi-Stage$192.01 - $211.50$201.56
Blended Fair Value$159.04
Current Price$47.85
Upside232.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.57%0.00%0.910.790.690.000.570.890.830.001.500.00
YoY Growth--14.96%14.64%0.00%-100.00%-35.48%7.45%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.38%2.23%2.41%0.00%2.56%2.36%1.70%0.00%2.77%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)327.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.1250.0830.05
Cash Retained (M)327.15327.15327.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.12-50.08-30.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.03277.07297.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.711.711.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.458.158.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Fair Value$92.21$116.51$145.26
Upside / Downside92.71%143.49%203.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.62398.91397.21395.52393.83392.15403.91
Payout Ratio18.34%32.67%47.00%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.47130.33186.71242.59298.00352.93373.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Year 1 PV (M)121.11122.34123.56
Year 2 PV (M)161.21164.49167.81
Year 3 PV (M)194.63200.62206.72
Year 4 PV (M)222.16231.32240.75
Year 5 PV (M)244.49257.14270.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,316.207,694.918,089.14
Equity Value (M)8,259.808,670.829,098.31
Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
Fair Value$192.01$201.56$211.50
Upside / Downside301.27%321.24%342.01%

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