Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kangqiao Service Group Limited (2205.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.92 - $1.43$1.16
Multi-Stage$2.09 - $2.30$2.19
Blended Fair Value$1.68
Current Price$0.62
Upside170.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.030.030.140.050.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---41.83%-9.36%-75.91%194.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.84%4.47%4.10%4.84%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.908.695.21
Cash Retained (M)43.8743.8743.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.90-8.69-5.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.9735.1838.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.92$1.16$1.43
Upside / Downside49.00%86.80%130.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.5268.8368.1467.4666.7866.1168.10
Payout Ratio36.89%47.51%58.13%68.76%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.6532.7039.6146.3853.0159.5062.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.4230.7331.04
Year 2 PV (M)34.2734.9735.68
Year 3 PV (M)37.3238.4839.65
Year 4 PV (M)39.6841.3243.02
Year 5 PV (M)41.4343.5845.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,280.491,347.171,416.59
Equity Value (M)1,463.601,536.251,611.82
Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
Fair Value$2.09$2.19$2.30
Upside / Downside237.07%253.80%271.21%

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