Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. (2204.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,111.27 - $1,665.54$1,374.07
Multi-Stage$2,819.13 - $3,105.97$2,959.70
Blended Fair Value$2,166.89
Current Price$3,105.00
Upside-30.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.32%-5.20%59.8951.5851.5651.5587.5687.5987.64117.79102.08102.15
YoY Growth--16.11%0.03%0.02%-41.13%-0.03%-0.06%-25.59%15.38%-0.07%0.02%
Dividend Yield--1.92%1.58%1.68%1.64%2.31%2.17%2.14%2.45%2.01%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)780.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)401.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)379.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.1597.5958.56
Cash Retained (M)379.42379.42379.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.15-97.59-58.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)223.27281.83320.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.795.795.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.5648.6855.42
LTM Dividend per Share69.3169.3169.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.5648.6855.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend107.88117.99124.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-3.10%-2.10%-1.10%
Fair Value$1,111.27$1,374.07$1,665.54
Upside / Downside-64.21%-55.75%-46.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)780.75764.38748.35732.66717.29702.25723.32
Payout Ratio51.40%59.12%66.84%74.56%82.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)401.33451.92500.21546.28590.19632.03669.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-3.10%-2.10%-1.10%
Year 1 PV (M)420.75425.10429.44
Year 2 PV (M)433.60442.59451.68
Year 3 PV (M)440.88454.67468.74
Year 4 PV (M)443.47462.06481.23
Year 5 PV (M)442.15465.44489.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,141.7314,886.6315,662.60
Equity Value (M)16,322.5817,136.4917,983.39
Shares Outstanding (M)5.795.795.79
Fair Value$2,819.13$2,959.70$3,105.97
Upside / Downside-9.21%-4.68%0.03%

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