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JBM (Healthcare) Limited (2161.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.22 - $6.50$5.28
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.29$9.81
Blended Fair Value$7.54
Current Price$2.99
Upside152.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.060.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--49.29%1,079.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.31%7.08%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)380.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)131.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)248.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.0547.5328.52
Cash Retained (M)248.87248.87248.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.05-47.53-28.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.81201.33220.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)827.81827.81827.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.22$5.28$6.50
Upside / Downside41.13%76.63%117.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)380.27376.47372.71368.98365.29361.64372.49
Payout Ratio34.56%45.65%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)131.41171.84211.45250.25288.25325.47344.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)159.67161.30162.93
Year 2 PV (M)182.56186.31190.09
Year 3 PV (M)200.76206.97213.30
Year 4 PV (M)214.87223.78232.96
Year 5 PV (M)225.43237.17249.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,751.587,103.157,469.22
Equity Value (M)7,734.888,118.678,517.89
Shares Outstanding (M)827.81827.81827.81
Fair Value$9.34$9.81$10.29
Upside / Downside212.50%228.01%244.14%

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