Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vesync Co., Ltd (2148.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.02 - $1.45$1.23
Multi-Stage$1.50 - $1.64$1.57
Blended Fair Value$1.40
Current Price$0.68
Upside105.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.020.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--259.04%-84.53%2.06%339.42%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.39%2.78%1.39%0.27%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.1121.3212.79
Cash Retained (M)167.59167.59167.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.11-21.32-12.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.49146.28154.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,101.171,101.171,101.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.02$1.23$1.45
Upside / Downside50.30%81.35%113.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170.53168.82167.14165.46163.81162.17167.04
Payout Ratio1.72%19.38%37.03%54.69%72.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.9432.7161.8990.49118.51145.95154.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4729.7730.08
Year 2 PV (M)50.2551.2852.32
Year 3 PV (M)66.1968.2370.32
Year 4 PV (M)78.1081.3484.67
Year 5 PV (M)86.6691.1895.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,336.071,405.641,478.09
Equity Value (M)1,646.741,727.441,811.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,101.171,101.171,101.17
Fair Value$1.50$1.57$1.64
Upside / Downside119.69%130.45%141.65%

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