Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ACWA POWER Company (2082.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.93 - $278.40$117.84
Multi-Stage$58.77 - $64.48$61.57
Blended Fair Value$89.71
Current Price$253.96
Upside-64.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.87%0.00%0.610.950.841.221.460.460.400.450.290.00
YoY Growth---36.22%12.85%-30.94%-16.31%219.72%14.95%-12.80%56.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.29%0.60%0.91%2.01%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,739.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,665.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)347.85217.41130.44
Cash Retained (M)1,665.581,665.581,665.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-347.85-217.41-130.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,317.741,448.181,535.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)742.49742.49742.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.771.952.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.771.952.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.052.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate3.87%4.87%5.87%
Fair Value$68.93$117.84$278.40
Upside / Downside-72.86%-53.60%9.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,739.241,823.931,912.732,005.862,103.522,205.942,272.12
Payout Ratio4.24%21.39%38.54%55.69%72.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.66390.10737.191,117.151,532.361,985.352,101.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate3.87%4.87%5.87%
Year 1 PV (M)362.15365.63369.12
Year 2 PV (M)635.31647.60660.01
Year 3 PV (M)893.76919.82946.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,138.081,182.551,228.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,368.841,436.021,505.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,239.7741,165.4043,165.90
Equity Value (M)43,637.9145,717.0247,875.52
Shares Outstanding (M)742.49742.49742.49
Fair Value$58.77$61.57$64.48
Upside / Downside-76.86%-75.76%-74.61%

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