Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries and Medical Appliances Corporation (2070.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.90 - $13.62$11.10
Multi-Stage$15.89 - $17.51$16.69
Blended Fair Value$13.89
Current Price$29.30
Upside-52.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-52.76%-26.92%0.020.000.601.000.501.001.480.980.001.29
YoY Growth--502.60%-99.35%-40.11%100.27%-50.07%-32.89%51.11%0.00%-100.00%139.81%
Dividend Yield--0.09%0.01%2.51%2.67%1.21%3.68%5.37%3.24%0.00%4.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3814.618.77
Cash Retained (M)114.96114.96114.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.38-14.61-8.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.58100.35106.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.63118.63118.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Fair Value$8.90$11.10$13.62
Upside / Downside-69.62%-62.10%-53.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.89116.51116.14115.76115.39115.02118.47
Payout Ratio1.65%19.32%36.99%54.66%72.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.9322.5142.9663.2883.46103.52109.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)20.7520.9621.17
Year 2 PV (M)36.4937.2337.98
Year 3 PV (M)49.5351.0552.61
Year 4 PV (M)60.2162.6965.25
Year 5 PV (M)68.8372.3976.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,649.791,735.101,823.90
Equity Value (M)1,885.601,979.422,076.99
Shares Outstanding (M)118.63118.63118.63
Fair Value$15.89$16.69$17.51
Upside / Downside-45.75%-43.05%-40.25%

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