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Definitive Analysis

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UNION biometrics Co., Ltd. (203450.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,368.32 - $9,145.65$7,008.67
Multi-Stage$9,056.38 - $9,958.99$9,498.97
Blended Fair Value$8,253.82
Current Price$3,160.00
Upside161.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.94%0.00%73.881.770.0076.6176.4077.4679.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4,081.98%0.00%-100.00%0.28%-1.37%-1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%0.05%0.00%2.18%1.59%3.83%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,290.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,368.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,058.17661.36396.81
Cash Retained (M)4,368.734,368.734,368.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,058.17-661.36-396.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,310.563,707.373,971.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
LTM Dividend per Share75.7875.7875.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share272.06304.67326.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend347.84380.45402.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$5,368.32$7,008.67$9,145.65
Upside / Downside69.88%121.79%189.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,290.865,359.165,428.345,498.425,569.405,641.295,810.53
Payout Ratio17.43%31.94%46.46%60.97%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.131,711.872,521.863,352.474,204.105,077.165,374.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)1,587.211,603.041,618.87
Year 2 PV (M)2,167.942,211.392,255.27
Year 3 PV (M)2,672.112,752.842,835.18
Year 4 PV (M)3,106.893,232.683,362.24
Year 5 PV (M)3,478.873,655.803,839.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,188.62102,131.55107,273.58
Equity Value (M)110,201.65115,587.29121,184.99
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
Fair Value$9,056.38$9,498.97$9,958.99
Upside / Downside186.59%200.60%215.16%

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