Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.96 - $24.44$20.60
Multi-Stage$30.86 - $34.02$32.41
Blended Fair Value$26.51
Current Price$37.13
Upside-28.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-41.65%-20.69%0.090.110.000.340.091.311.861.421.120.80
YoY Growth---20.52%0.00%-100.00%277.55%-93.02%-29.83%31.24%26.48%39.88%-10.72%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.53%0.00%1.37%0.25%2.15%4.66%1.14%1.78%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,825.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,721.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.03353.14211.88
Cash Retained (M)2,721.552,721.552,721.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.03-353.14-211.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,156.522,368.412,509.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.701,172.701,172.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.842.022.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.842.022.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Fair Value$16.96$20.60$24.44
Upside / Downside-54.33%-44.51%-34.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,825.132,770.412,716.752,664.122,612.522,561.912,638.77
Payout Ratio3.67%20.93%38.20%55.47%72.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103.58579.941,037.791,477.701,900.172,305.722,440.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Year 1 PV (M)531.03536.50541.98
Year 2 PV (M)870.15888.18906.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,134.521,169.951,206.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,335.861,391.771,449.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,484.291,562.341,643.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,838.5232,460.1734,149.34
Equity Value (M)36,194.3738,008.9139,896.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.701,172.701,172.70
Fair Value$30.86$32.41$34.02
Upside / Downside-16.88%-12.71%-8.37%

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