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Definitive Analysis

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Humedix Co., Ltd. (200670.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82,793.38 - $158,830.29$113,279.66
Multi-Stage$180,493.78 - $198,826.46$189,481.26
Blended Fair Value$151,380.46
Current Price$53,800.00
Upside181.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.18%0.00%577.25686.79364.83365.07461.93518.32500.14416.08251.820.00
YoY Growth---15.95%88.25%-0.07%-20.97%-10.88%3.64%20.20%65.23%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.48%2.35%1.58%1.68%1.89%3.00%1.78%1.00%0.94%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55,281.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,959.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)50,322.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,056.266,910.164,146.10
Cash Retained (M)50,322.0850,322.0850,322.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,056.26-6,910.16-4,146.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)39,265.8243,411.9246,175.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.3110.3110.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share3,809.444,211.684,479.84
LTM Dividend per Share481.13481.13481.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share3,809.444,211.684,479.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,290.574,692.814,960.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Fair Value$82,793.38$113,279.66$158,830.29
Upside / Downside53.89%110.56%195.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55,281.3155,932.0956,590.5357,256.7357,930.7658,612.7360,371.12
Payout Ratio8.97%25.18%41.38%57.59%73.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,959.2314,081.8623,418.6032,973.2142,749.5352,751.4655,843.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Year 1 PV (M)13,232.2913,364.3813,496.47
Year 2 PV (M)20,678.0921,092.9821,511.99
Year 3 PV (M)27,358.0728,185.5729,029.59
Year 4 PV (M)33,329.6234,680.5136,072.05
Year 5 PV (M)38,646.3340,614.1342,661.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,727,195.181,815,140.531,906,632.33
Equity Value (M)1,860,439.591,953,078.092,049,403.71
Shares Outstanding (M)10.3110.3110.31
Fair Value$180,493.78$189,481.26$198,826.46
Upside / Downside235.49%252.20%269.57%

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