Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Saudi Manpower Solutions Co. (1834.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.72 - $4.14$3.39
Multi-Stage$5.91 - $6.49$6.20
Blended Fair Value$4.79
Current Price$6.07
Upside-21.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.94%0.00%0.120.430.280.380.190.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---71.76%56.46%-27.67%100.29%200.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.96%4.75%3.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.4715.299.18
Cash Retained (M)22.3522.3522.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.47-15.29-9.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.127.0613.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)395.07395.07395.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.72$3.39$4.14
Upside / Downside-55.13%-44.17%-31.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.35121.13119.92118.72117.53116.35119.84
Payout Ratio81.73%83.39%85.04%86.69%88.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.00101.00101.98102.92103.83104.72110.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)93.5294.4795.42
Year 2 PV (M)87.4289.2191.02
Year 3 PV (M)81.6984.2186.79
Year 4 PV (M)76.3079.4682.72
Year 5 PV (M)71.2574.9678.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,926.312,026.622,131.06
Equity Value (M)2,336.482,448.932,565.84
Shares Outstanding (M)395.07395.07395.07
Fair Value$5.91$6.20$6.49
Upside / Downside-2.57%2.12%6.99%

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