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China Resources Medical Holdings Company Limited (1515.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.39 - $120.40$112.83
Multi-Stage$15.98 - $17.50$16.73
Blended Fair Value$64.78
Current Price$3.74
Upside1,632.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.14%12.09%0.110.030.100.070.090.100.090.060.070.03
YoY Growth--228.50%-67.32%42.30%-20.87%-12.47%10.90%69.54%-15.86%155.68%-26.88%
Dividend Yield--2.94%0.78%2.01%1.91%1.63%2.57%2.09%0.68%0.74%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)765.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)583.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.0895.6757.40
Cash Retained (M)583.92583.92583.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.08-95.67-57.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)430.84488.24526.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.291,264.291,264.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.39$112.83$120.40
Upside / Downside926.58%2,916.87%3,119.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)765.40815.15868.13924.56984.661,048.661,080.12
Payout Ratio23.71%36.97%50.23%63.48%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.48301.35436.03586.95755.65943.80999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)279.43282.08284.73
Year 2 PV (M)374.92382.06389.26
Year 3 PV (M)467.97481.41495.10
Year 4 PV (M)558.66580.14602.24
Year 5 PV (M)647.01678.26710.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,879.5118,743.1019,639.74
Equity Value (M)20,207.5021,147.0522,121.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,264.291,264.291,264.29
Fair Value$15.98$16.73$17.50
Upside / Downside327.36%347.23%367.84%

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