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Definitive Analysis

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China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation (1508.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - ReinsuranceSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.72 - $7.41$5.96
Multi-Stage$8.80 - $9.69$9.24
Blended Fair Value$7.60
Current Price$1.11
Upside584.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.28%15.11%0.040.010.040.040.040.030.050.050.130.02
YoY Growth--200.00%-68.89%9.76%-6.43%41.49%-35.76%0.65%-61.98%634.83%66.67%
Dividend Yield--5.14%3.43%10.30%6.71%6.51%2.72%3.44%3.26%7.63%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,441.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,378.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,062.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,088.302,555.191,533.11
Cash Retained (M)18,062.6418,062.6418,062.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,088.30-2,555.19-1,533.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,974.3415,507.4516,529.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42,479.8142,479.8142,479.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.05%-0.05%0.95%
Fair Value$4.72$5.96$7.41
Upside / Downside325.61%436.79%567.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,441.5120,430.6620,419.8020,408.9620,398.1220,387.2920,998.91
Payout Ratio11.64%27.31%42.98%58.65%74.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,378.875,579.608,776.9411,970.8715,161.4118,348.5619,423.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.05%-0.05%0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)5,161.945,214.115,266.28
Year 2 PV (M)7,512.117,664.727,818.87
Year 3 PV (M)9,478.839,769.1310,065.31
Year 4 PV (M)11,106.5311,562.3712,032.10
Year 5 PV (M)12,435.1313,076.3313,743.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)328,301.46345,229.97362,849.72
Equity Value (M)373,995.99392,516.64411,775.98
Shares Outstanding (M)42,479.8142,479.8142,479.81
Fair Value$8.80$9.24$9.69
Upside / Downside693.16%732.44%773.28%

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