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Baguio Green Group Limited (1397.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.11 - $66.17$62.01
Multi-Stage$9.19 - $10.06$9.62
Blended Fair Value$35.82
Current Price$0.66
Upside5,326.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.18%-7.86%0.030.040.010.040.000.010.010.020.020.01
YoY Growth---10.53%322.22%-75.00%0.00%-100.00%-50.00%-17.65%0.00%30.77%-83.14%
Dividend Yield--5.31%5.51%1.91%7.27%0.00%1.71%2.30%2.39%1.91%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6217.2610.36
Cash Retained (M)108.20108.20108.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.62-17.26-10.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.5890.9497.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.00415.00415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.11$62.01$66.17
Upside / Downside3,553.28%9,295.44%9,925.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.08147.05156.61166.79177.63189.18194.85
Payout Ratio21.64%35.31%48.98%62.66%76.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.8851.9376.71104.50135.58170.26180.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.2348.6849.14
Year 2 PV (M)66.1767.4368.70
Year 3 PV (M)83.7186.1188.56
Year 4 PV (M)100.86104.74108.73
Year 5 PV (M)117.63123.31129.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,398.053,562.183,732.59
Equity Value (M)3,814.653,992.464,176.93
Shares Outstanding (M)415.00415.00415.00
Fair Value$9.19$9.62$10.06
Upside / Downside1,292.72%1,357.63%1,424.98%

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