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Breton Technology Co. Ltd. (1333.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.12 - $7.88$6.40
Multi-Stage$11.70 - $12.86$12.27
Blended Fair Value$9.34
Current Price$33.30
Upside-71.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.830.740.600.510.53
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%11.53%24.95%16.46%-3.72%-8.05%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.88%2.63%2.22%1.77%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,136.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)846.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.38142.1185.27
Cash Retained (M)290.69290.69290.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.38-142.11-85.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.31148.58205.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,039.862,039.862,039.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.12$6.40$7.88
Upside / Downside-84.63%-80.77%-76.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,136.901,125.531,114.271,103.131,092.101,081.181,113.62
Payout Ratio74.43%77.54%80.66%83.77%86.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)846.21872.79898.76924.12948.89973.061,030.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)810.94819.22827.49
Year 2 PV (M)775.90791.81807.89
Year 3 PV (M)741.26764.18787.57
Year 4 PV (M)707.19736.49766.71
Year 5 PV (M)673.81708.90745.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,152.2921,201.6722,294.31
Equity Value (M)23,861.3925,022.2726,229.40
Shares Outstanding (M)2,039.862,039.862,039.86
Fair Value$11.70$12.27$12.86
Upside / Downside-64.87%-63.16%-61.39%

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