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Public Bank Berhad (1295.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.47 - $13.31$9.08
Multi-Stage$8.24 - $9.03$8.63
Blended Fair Value$8.85
Current Price$4.33
Upside104.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.45%7.23%0.200.140.200.210.080.140.130.120.120.11
YoY Growth--43.23%-28.93%-3.90%156.25%-42.86%6.35%12.15%1.72%5.45%9.66%
Dividend Yield--4.58%3.31%4.94%4.41%1.91%4.42%2.94%2.45%2.91%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,147.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,322.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,429.52893.45536.07
Cash Retained (M)2,825.002,825.002,825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,429.52-893.45-536.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,395.481,931.552,288.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,337.7519,337.7519,337.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Fair Value$6.47$9.08$13.31
Upside / Downside49.32%109.72%207.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,147.607,387.097,634.617,890.418,154.798,428.038,680.87
Payout Ratio60.48%66.38%72.29%78.19%84.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,322.604,903.635,518.736,169.556,857.797,585.228,029.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.35%3.35%4.35%
Year 1 PV (M)4,537.154,581.484,625.81
Year 2 PV (M)4,724.674,817.444,911.12
Year 3 PV (M)4,887.115,031.765,179.23
Year 4 PV (M)5,026.305,225.635,430.83
Year 5 PV (M)5,143.975,400.225,666.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)135,074.80141,803.64148,798.00
Equity Value (M)159,393.99166,860.17174,611.58
Shares Outstanding (M)19,337.7519,337.7519,337.75
Fair Value$8.24$8.63$9.03
Upside / Downside90.36%99.28%108.54%

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