Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Accel Group Holdings Limited (1283.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.06 - $1.64$1.33
Multi-Stage$2.40 - $2.64$2.51
Blended Fair Value$1.92
Current Price$1.38
Upside39.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.020.040.060.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.27%-37.84%-40.32%93.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.37%3.01%2.95%4.06%1.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2611.416.85
Cash Retained (M)57.4957.4957.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.26-11.41-6.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.2346.0850.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)803.55803.55803.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.06$1.33$1.64
Upside / Downside-23.34%-3.88%18.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.3090.3989.4888.5987.7086.8389.43
Payout Ratio37.03%47.62%58.22%68.81%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8143.0452.0960.9669.6478.1482.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.0440.4540.86
Year 2 PV (M)45.0746.0046.93
Year 3 PV (M)49.0650.5852.13
Year 4 PV (M)52.1454.3056.52
Year 5 PV (M)54.4257.2560.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,684.261,771.971,863.29
Equity Value (M)1,924.992,020.532,119.92
Shares Outstanding (M)803.55803.55803.55
Fair Value$2.40$2.51$2.64
Upside / Downside73.60%82.21%91.17%

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