Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Catena AB (publ) (0GVS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,638.07 - $5,308.30$4,974.65
Multi-Stage$815.49 - $892.84$853.45
Blended Fair Value$2,914.05
Current Price$428.00
Upside580.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.71%25.32%8.126.846.015.124.063.592.792.071.651.27
YoY Growth--18.64%13.77%17.48%26.12%13.01%28.74%34.61%25.48%29.65%49.90%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.34%1.57%0.90%1.05%1.24%1.06%1.26%1.25%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,611.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,082.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.20201.38120.83
Cash Retained (M)1,082.001,082.001,082.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.20-201.38-120.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)759.80880.63961.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.3660.3660.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.5914.5915.93
LTM Dividend per Share8.768.768.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.5914.5915.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.3523.3624.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,638.07$4,974.65$5,308.30
Upside / Downside516.37%1,062.30%1,140.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,611.001,715.721,827.241,946.012,072.502,207.212,273.43
Payout Ratio32.84%44.27%55.70%67.13%78.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)529.00759.541,017.811,306.451,628.311,986.492,102.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)707.45714.16720.87
Year 2 PV (M)883.01899.83916.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,055.701,086.001,116.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,225.561,272.691,321.16
Year 5 PV (M)1,392.621,459.881,529.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,955.4446,078.5048,282.82
Equity Value (M)49,219.7751,511.0653,888.26
Shares Outstanding (M)60.3660.3660.36
Fair Value$815.49$853.45$892.84
Upside / Downside90.54%99.41%108.61%

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