Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (0780.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.72 - $11.18$9.40
Multi-Stage$12.57 - $13.82$13.18
Blended Fair Value$11.29
Current Price$17.86
Upside-36.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.130.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,454.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,143.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)490.95306.85184.11
Cash Retained (M)2,143.072,143.072,143.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-490.95-306.85-184.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,652.111,836.221,958.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,310.272,310.272,310.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.720.790.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.720.790.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.72$9.40$11.18
Upside / Downside-56.77%-47.35%-37.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,454.772,430.222,405.922,381.862,358.042,334.462,404.49
Payout Ratio12.70%28.16%43.62%59.08%74.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.70684.311,049.431,407.181,757.672,101.012,224.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)622.67629.02635.38
Year 2 PV (M)868.90886.72904.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,060.171,092.951,126.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,204.951,254.891,306.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,310.601,378.841,449.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,968.6825,216.7826,516.34
Equity Value (M)29,035.9630,459.2131,939.13
Shares Outstanding (M)2,310.272,310.272,310.27
Fair Value$12.57$13.18$13.82
Upside / Downside-29.63%-26.18%-22.59%

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