Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tian An Medicare Limited (0383.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.20 - $3.43$1.88
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.34$1.28
Blended Fair Value$1.58
Current Price$0.81
Upside95.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192019201820172016
DPS0.00%-14.66%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.766.734.04
Cash Retained (M)21.2821.2821.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.76-6.73-4.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.5214.5517.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,085.491,085.491,085.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$1.20$1.88$3.43
Upside / Downside48.49%132.04%323.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.8056.1858.6661.2563.9666.7968.79
Payout Ratio60.45%66.36%72.27%78.18%84.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.5237.2842.3947.8953.7860.1163.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)34.5634.9035.23
Year 2 PV (M)36.4437.1537.86
Year 3 PV (M)38.1639.2840.42
Year 4 PV (M)39.7441.3042.90
Year 5 PV (M)41.1743.2045.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,138.571,194.691,253.00
Equity Value (M)1,328.641,390.511,454.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,085.491,085.491,085.49
Fair Value$1.22$1.28$1.34
Upside / Downside51.11%58.15%65.45%

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