Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.65 - $62.11$58.17
Multi-Stage$35.38 - $39.09$37.19
Blended Fair Value$47.68
Current Price$1.58
Upside2,917.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-13.04%-32.16%0.020.000.000.000.000.040.190.230.230.41
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-79.23%-16.67%0.00%-42.86%-58.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.52%4.48%5.37%5.74%9.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.8419.9011.94
Cash Retained (M)149.68149.68149.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.84-19.90-11.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.84129.78137.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.78476.78476.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%
Growth Rate-1.46%-0.46%0.54%
Fair Value$52.65$58.17$62.11
Upside / Downside3,232.23%3,581.61%3,831.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.22158.48157.74157.01156.28155.55160.22
Payout Ratio5.99%22.79%39.59%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.5436.1262.4688.55114.39140.00148.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%
Growth Rate-1.46%-0.46%0.54%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8537.2337.60
Year 2 PV (M)65.0266.3567.69
Year 3 PV (M)94.0796.9699.91
Year 4 PV (M)124.00129.11134.38
Year 5 PV (M)154.84162.86171.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,391.7117,240.5318,124.16
Equity Value (M)16,866.4917,733.0418,634.95
Shares Outstanding (M)476.78476.78476.78
Fair Value$35.38$37.19$39.09
Upside / Downside2,138.99%2,254.02%2,373.75%

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