Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KCTC Co. Ltd (009070.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,966.73 - $8,829.08$7,335.40
Multi-Stage$4,950.09 - $5,387.82$5,165.10
Blended Fair Value$6,250.25
Current Price$5,300.00
Upside17.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.17%12.09%80.8260.4960.4550.3947.5145.5050.4135.3837.7934.15
YoY Growth--33.60%0.07%19.97%6.05%4.42%-9.74%42.48%-6.37%10.67%32.31%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.55%1.42%0.80%0.74%2.31%1.39%1.34%1.16%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,749.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,646.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,103.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,149.992,593.741,556.24
Cash Retained (M)18,103.5418,103.5418,103.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,149.99-2,593.74-1,556.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,953.5615,509.8016,547.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.9129.9129.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share466.57518.61553.30
LTM Dividend per Share88.4988.4988.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share466.57518.61553.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend555.06607.09641.78
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,966.73$7,335.40$8,829.08
Upside / Downside12.58%38.40%66.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,749.9322,098.6823,535.0925,064.8726,694.0928,429.2129,282.08
Payout Ratio12.75%28.20%43.65%59.10%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,646.396,232.4910,273.5914,813.7119,900.6425,586.2927,085.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,354.045,404.795,455.54
Year 2 PV (M)7,581.637,726.047,871.81
Year 3 PV (M)9,391.289,660.879,935.57
Year 4 PV (M)10,837.9711,254.7711,683.47
Year 5 PV (M)11,970.3912,548.5613,148.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,905.80107,876.18113,036.80
Equity Value (M)148,041.10154,471.21161,132.06
Shares Outstanding (M)29.9129.9129.91
Fair Value$4,950.09$5,165.10$5,387.82
Upside / Downside-6.60%-2.55%1.66%

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