Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongbang Transport Logistics Co., Ltd. (004140.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,617.28 - $13,661.41$8,356.45
Multi-Stage$4,423.32 - $4,842.96$4,629.27
Blended Fair Value$6,492.86
Current Price$2,795.00
Upside132.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.30%-3.99%20.030.000.000.001.806.2312.839.268.3812.76
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-71.19%-51.43%38.47%10.57%-34.35%-57.58%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.37%0.73%0.58%0.44%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,430.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)955.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,474.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,486.151,553.84932.31
Cash Retained (M)11,474.8511,474.8511,474.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,486.15-1,553.84-932.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,988.709,921.0110,542.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
LTM Dividend per Share20.0320.0320.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.35227.88240.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$5,617.28$8,356.45$13,661.41
Upside / Downside100.98%198.98%388.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,430.7513,127.6013,863.5214,640.6915,461.4216,328.1716,818.01
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)955.903,170.555,630.518,356.3011,370.0114,695.3515,556.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)2,894.882,922.552,950.23
Year 2 PV (M)4,693.954,784.134,875.16
Year 3 PV (M)6,360.646,544.806,732.49
Year 4 PV (M)7,902.118,208.638,523.99
Year 5 PV (M)9,325.189,779.5210,251.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)179,953.89188,721.44197,827.45
Equity Value (M)211,130.64220,961.08231,160.71
Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
Fair Value$4,423.32$4,629.27$4,842.96
Upside / Downside58.26%65.63%73.27%

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