Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. (002971.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.48 - $67.73$63.47
Multi-Stage$81.13 - $89.11$85.04
Blended Fair Value$74.25
Current Price$35.43
Upside109.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.05%0.00%0.230.120.170.230.080.080.160.080.060.07
YoY Growth--98.57%-32.53%-26.13%191.80%-2.29%-49.43%110.86%24.08%-9.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.55%0.96%1.43%0.58%0.51%1.36%0.65%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.429.015.41
Cash Retained (M)2.602.602.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.42-9.01-5.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.82-6.41-2.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.51209.51209.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate-12.29%-12.29%-12.29%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$57.48$63.47$67.73
Upside / Downside62.22%79.13%91.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.0875.9880.1084.4389.0193.8396.64
Payout Ratio96.40%95.12%93.84%92.56%91.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.4872.2775.1678.1581.2584.4589.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-12.29%-12.29%-12.29%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)81.6282.4083.18
Year 2 PV (M)95.8697.7099.56
Year 3 PV (M)112.56115.82119.15
Year 4 PV (M)132.14137.28142.56
Year 5 PV (M)155.11162.68170.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,420.0017,221.4818,053.96
Equity Value (M)16,997.2817,817.3618,668.96
Shares Outstanding (M)209.51209.51209.51
Fair Value$81.13$85.04$89.11
Upside / Downside128.98%140.03%151.50%

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