Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bear Electric Appliance Co.,Ltd. (002959.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.19 - $48.34$36.90
Multi-Stage$52.40 - $57.59$54.95
Blended Fair Value$45.92
Current Price$49.97
Upside-8.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS204.08%0.00%1.230.790.591.200.770.000.010.540.330.06
YoY Growth--55.55%33.32%-50.45%56.44%16,072.51%-61.83%-97.70%64.60%447.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.86%1.41%0.84%2.66%0.89%0.01%0.03%1.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)353.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)197.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.7144.1926.51
Cash Retained (M)197.98197.98197.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.71-44.19-26.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.28153.79171.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)156.61156.61156.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$28.19$36.90$48.34
Upside / Downside-43.58%-26.15%-3.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)353.53357.19360.90364.64368.42372.24383.41
Payout Ratio44.00%53.20%62.40%71.60%80.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155.54190.02225.19261.08297.68335.01354.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)176.75178.52180.28
Year 2 PV (M)194.84198.75202.70
Year 3 PV (M)210.11216.47222.96
Year 4 PV (M)222.83231.88241.19
Year 5 PV (M)233.26245.16257.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,168.637,534.177,914.47
Equity Value (M)8,206.428,604.949,019.14
Shares Outstanding (M)156.61156.61156.61
Fair Value$52.40$54.95$57.59
Upside / Downside4.87%9.96%15.25%

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