Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co., Ltd. (002931.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $4.72$3.19
Multi-Stage$2.18 - $2.38$2.28
Blended Fair Value$2.74
Current Price$15.36
Upside-82.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.14%10.24%0.120.010.100.110.070.090.000.010.190.06
YoY Growth--755.02%-85.94%-6.64%60.00%-25.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.38%209.11%33.23%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.09%0.86%0.94%0.62%0.84%0.00%0.08%2.34%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.993.121.87
Cash Retained (M)0.790.790.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.99-3.12-1.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.19-2.33-1.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.90199.90199.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$2.26$3.19$4.72
Upside / Downside-85.27%-79.20%-69.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.9326.2127.5528.9730.4632.0232.98
Payout Ratio96.83%95.46%94.10%92.73%91.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.1425.0225.9326.8627.8328.8230.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)22.7923.0123.23
Year 2 PV (M)21.5221.9322.35
Year 3 PV (M)20.3120.9021.50
Year 4 PV (M)19.1619.9120.68
Year 5 PV (M)18.0818.9719.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)334.05350.40367.38
Equity Value (M)435.91455.11475.02
Shares Outstanding (M)199.90199.90199.90
Fair Value$2.18$2.28$2.38
Upside / Downside-85.80%-85.18%-84.53%

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