Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen King Explorer Science and Technology Corporation (002917.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.91 - $50.94$21.95
Multi-Stage$7.96 - $8.70$8.32
Blended Fair Value$15.14
Current Price$13.95
Upside8.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.00%0.00%0.180.160.180.120.060.030.060.000.030.21
YoY Growth--18.36%-15.71%52.31%88.24%94.84%-46.45%0.00%-100.00%-86.17%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.78%1.73%1.16%0.76%0.35%0.55%0.00%0.41%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.8618.6611.20
Cash Retained (M)132.70132.70132.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.86-18.66-11.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.85114.05121.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)342.29342.29342.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.91$21.95$50.94
Upside / Downside-7.46%57.36%265.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.28158.98169.31180.32192.04204.52210.66
Payout Ratio11.10%26.88%42.66%58.44%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.5742.7372.23105.38142.53184.07194.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.0739.4439.81
Year 2 PV (M)60.3761.5262.68
Year 3 PV (M)80.5382.8485.20
Year 4 PV (M)99.58103.41107.35
Year 5 PV (M)117.58123.26129.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,325.952,438.302,554.94
Equity Value (M)2,723.092,848.772,979.14
Shares Outstanding (M)342.29342.29342.29
Fair Value$7.96$8.32$8.70
Upside / Downside-42.97%-40.34%-37.61%

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