Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Jingneng Thermal Co. Ltd. Class A (002893.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.07 - $10.03$7.02
Multi-Stage$8.64 - $9.50$9.06
Blended Fair Value$8.04
Current Price$11.26
Upside-28.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.54%5.51%0.120.090.120.100.060.200.120.060.050.07
YoY Growth--28.34%-26.24%19.90%74.29%-71.03%76.05%81.21%19.54%-20.37%-1.80%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.88%1.38%1.23%0.45%2.60%1.18%0.42%0.73%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.3910.246.15
Cash Retained (M)46.8646.8646.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.39-10.24-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.4736.6140.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.21264.21264.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Fair Value$5.07$7.02$10.03
Upside / Downside-54.99%-37.70%-10.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.9483.6485.3887.1588.9590.8093.52
Payout Ratio42.82%52.25%61.69%71.13%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.0943.7152.6761.9871.6681.7286.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)40.8241.2241.63
Year 2 PV (M)45.9446.8647.78
Year 3 PV (M)50.5052.0153.55
Year 4 PV (M)54.5356.7258.97
Year 5 PV (M)58.0761.0064.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,033.922,136.552,243.27
Equity Value (M)2,283.782,394.352,509.25
Shares Outstanding (M)264.21264.21264.21
Fair Value$8.64$9.06$9.50
Upside / Downside-23.24%-19.52%-15.66%

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