Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd (002887.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.13 - $4.65$3.86
Multi-Stage$8.10 - $8.91$8.50
Blended Fair Value$6.18
Current Price$9.40
Upside-34.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.82%61.59%0.360.360.180.510.170.110.160.100.000.10
YoY Growth--2.05%101.74%-65.37%194.49%62.50%-33.33%60.00%3,041.59%-96.90%3,328.30%
Dividend Yield--4.89%4.89%1.92%5.58%1.30%0.98%1.25%0.52%0.02%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7214.828.89
Cash Retained (M)18.3818.3818.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.72-14.82-8.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.343.569.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.02301.02301.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.31%-2.31%-1.31%
Fair Value$3.13$3.86$4.65
Upside / Downside-66.69%-58.97%-50.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.59115.85113.18110.56108.01105.51108.67
Payout Ratio84.50%85.60%86.70%87.80%88.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.2299.1798.1397.0796.0294.96100.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.31%-2.31%-1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)92.2493.1994.14
Year 2 PV (M)84.8886.6488.43
Year 3 PV (M)78.0980.5483.04
Year 4 PV (M)71.8474.8677.97
Year 5 PV (M)66.0869.5773.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,045.292,153.262,265.75
Equity Value (M)2,438.422,558.072,682.54
Shares Outstanding (M)301.02301.02301.02
Fair Value$8.10$8.50$8.91
Upside / Downside-13.82%-9.59%-5.20%

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