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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Weflo Valve Co., Ltd. (002871.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.70 - $114.36$107.18
Multi-Stage$17.14 - $18.73$17.92
Blended Fair Value$62.55
Current Price$16.71
Upside274.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.32%0.00%0.300.200.240.210.210.090.080.200.000.16
YoY Growth--47.76%-15.60%14.68%-0.81%126.70%14.43%-60.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.13%2.21%2.08%2.48%3.02%1.04%0.62%1.93%0.00%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8518.0310.82
Cash Retained (M)29.0129.0129.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.85-18.03-10.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.1610.9818.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.82250.82250.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.70$107.18$114.36
Upside / Downside179.45%541.39%584.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.23153.61163.59174.23185.55197.61203.54
Payout Ratio79.89%81.91%83.93%85.96%87.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.23125.82137.31149.76163.24177.85188.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)116.99118.10119.21
Year 2 PV (M)118.71120.97123.25
Year 3 PV (M)120.38123.84127.36
Year 4 PV (M)122.01126.71131.53
Year 5 PV (M)123.60129.57135.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,696.853,875.414,060.80
Equity Value (M)4,298.554,494.604,697.93
Shares Outstanding (M)250.82250.82250.82
Fair Value$17.14$17.92$18.73
Upside / Downside2.56%7.24%12.09%

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