Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited (002841.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.97 - $260.20$243.84
Multi-Stage$36.86 - $40.31$38.55
Blended Fair Value$141.20
Current Price$39.80
Upside254.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.69%28.92%0.931.120.910.980.730.510.350.240.440.10
YoY Growth---17.16%23.37%-7.46%34.27%43.15%45.09%44.30%-44.96%354.24%33.27%
Dividend Yield--2.44%3.11%1.22%1.53%0.56%0.66%0.44%0.46%0.74%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)907.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)486.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)420.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)181.51113.4568.07
Cash Retained (M)420.65420.65420.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-181.51-113.45-68.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.14307.20352.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)693.69693.69693.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.440.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.440.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.97$243.84$260.20
Upside / Downside136.11%512.67%553.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)907.57966.571,029.391,096.301,167.561,243.461,280.76
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)486.92588.84701.95827.28965.931,119.111,184.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)546.81552.00557.18
Year 2 PV (M)605.32616.85628.49
Year 3 PV (M)662.48681.49700.87
Year 4 PV (M)718.30745.92774.33
Year 5 PV (M)772.81810.14848.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,260.7523,335.9524,452.30
Equity Value (M)25,566.4626,742.3527,962.07
Shares Outstanding (M)693.69693.69693.69
Fair Value$36.86$38.55$40.31
Upside / Downside-7.40%-3.14%1.28%

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