Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. (002831.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.99 - $321.50$301.30
Multi-Stage$50.50 - $55.26$52.84
Blended Fair Value$177.07
Current Price$27.39
Upside546.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.84%24.53%1.080.820.390.440.410.420.390.300.270.21
YoY Growth--31.68%108.76%-10.21%6.47%-1.97%8.54%27.60%14.36%24.65%76.39%
Dividend Yield--4.28%3.24%1.41%1.68%1.41%1.89%1.47%1.25%0.84%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,475.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)731.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)743.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.07184.42110.65
Cash Retained (M)743.36743.36743.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.07-184.42-110.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)448.29558.94632.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)912.62912.62912.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.610.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.610.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$166.99$301.30$321.50
Upside / Downside509.68%1,000.03%1,073.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,475.351,571.251,673.381,782.151,897.992,021.362,082.00
Payout Ratio49.61%57.69%65.77%73.85%81.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)731.99906.481,100.561,316.041,554.891,819.221,925.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)844.61852.62860.63
Year 2 PV (M)955.46973.66992.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,064.561,095.121,126.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,171.921,216.991,263.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,277.571,339.281,403.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,772.6542,741.9844,786.69
Equity Value (M)46,086.7848,219.6650,432.30
Shares Outstanding (M)912.62912.62912.62
Fair Value$50.50$52.84$55.26
Upside / Downside84.37%92.91%101.76%

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