Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tibet GaoZheng Explosive Co., Ltd. (002827.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.32 - $117.71$48.30
Multi-Stage$12.90 - $14.10$13.49
Blended Fair Value$30.89
Current Price$38.57
Upside-19.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.28%-2.78%0.230.270.180.190.170.280.270.200.160.17
YoY Growth---14.03%47.76%-1.62%9.49%-38.14%3.75%33.33%28.14%-5.55%-46.77%
Dividend Yield--0.96%1.71%1.80%1.78%1.48%3.12%2.27%1.71%0.74%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.6720.4212.25
Cash Retained (M)101.96101.96101.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.67-20.42-12.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.3081.5589.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.96275.96275.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.32$48.30$117.71
Upside / Downside-39.53%25.22%205.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.34173.96185.26197.31210.13223.79230.50
Payout Ratio37.58%48.06%58.55%69.03%79.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.3883.60108.46136.20167.09201.41213.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)76.9477.6778.40
Year 2 PV (M)91.8693.6195.38
Year 3 PV (M)106.16109.20112.31
Year 4 PV (M)119.85124.46129.20
Year 5 PV (M)132.95139.37146.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,031.913,178.363,330.40
Equity Value (M)3,559.673,722.663,891.72
Shares Outstanding (M)275.96275.96275.96
Fair Value$12.90$13.49$14.10
Upside / Downside-66.56%-65.03%-63.44%

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