Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tongyu Communication Inc. (002792.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.16 - $0.21$0.19
Multi-Stage$0.29 - $0.32$0.30
Blended Fair Value$0.24
Current Price$16.38
Upside-98.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.63%6.03%0.150.080.020.200.010.020.020.090.110.06
YoY Growth--98.78%330.30%-90.78%1,277.19%-18.59%-19.03%-74.92%-24.99%100.00%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.09%0.57%0.15%1.71%0.12%0.08%0.13%0.63%0.59%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.031.901.14
Cash Retained (M)0.460.460.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.03-1.90-1.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.57-1.44-0.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)522.46522.46522.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-4.26%-3.26%-2.26%
Fair Value$0.16$0.19$0.21
Upside / Downside-99.05%-98.87%-98.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.1714.6714.2013.7313.2912.8513.24
Payout Ratio96.96%95.57%94.18%92.78%91.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.7114.0213.3712.7412.1411.5712.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-4.26%-3.26%-2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)12.6212.7512.88
Year 2 PV (M)10.8311.0611.28
Year 3 PV (M)9.299.589.88
Year 4 PV (M)7.968.308.65
Year 5 PV (M)6.837.197.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)103.68109.20114.97
Equity Value (M)151.20158.09165.24
Shares Outstanding (M)522.46522.46522.46
Fair Value$0.29$0.30$0.32
Upside / Downside-98.23%-98.15%-98.07%

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