Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zhongjian Technology Co.,Ltd (002779.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.87 - $14.84$9.81
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.54$5.30
Blended Fair Value$7.56
Current Price$129.40
Upside-94.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.69%0.00%0.150.040.020.000.010.020.040.060.080.00
YoY Growth--267.49%110.00%371.08%-64.62%-33.33%-50.00%-34.55%-28.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.22%0.16%0.11%0.02%0.16%0.16%0.26%0.42%0.29%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.465.913.55
Cash Retained (M)32.1832.1832.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.46-5.91-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.7326.2728.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.99131.99131.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.87$9.81$14.84
Upside / Downside-94.69%-92.42%-88.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.2850.3553.6257.1160.8264.7766.72
Payout Ratio31.92%43.54%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0921.9229.5838.1347.6758.3061.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.7619.9520.13
Year 2 PV (M)24.0324.4924.95
Year 3 PV (M)27.9228.7329.54
Year 4 PV (M)31.4732.6833.92
Year 5 PV (M)34.6936.3638.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)532.09557.79584.47
Equity Value (M)669.96699.99731.12
Shares Outstanding (M)131.99131.99131.99
Fair Value$5.08$5.30$5.54
Upside / Downside-96.08%-95.90%-95.72%

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