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Definitive Analysis

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Tianshui Zhongxing Bio-technology Co.,Ltd. (002772.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.96 - $127.66$119.64
Multi-Stage$20.35 - $22.25$21.28
Blended Fair Value$70.46
Current Price$10.37
Upside579.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.66%22.94%0.530.560.450.390.270.210.130.140.080.09
YoY Growth---5.33%23.76%14.57%43.26%32.97%56.75%-8.94%74.09%-11.70%40.62%
Dividend Yield--7.32%7.10%5.24%4.94%3.04%2.49%1.59%1.36%0.47%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.7530.4718.28
Cash Retained (M)75.3175.3175.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.75-30.47-18.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.5644.8457.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)379.69379.69379.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.96$119.64$127.66
Upside / Downside545.74%1,053.67%1,131.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.73259.57276.44294.41313.55333.93343.95
Payout Ratio69.10%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.42190.22214.13240.36269.09300.53318.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)177.25178.93180.61
Year 2 PV (M)185.93189.47193.05
Year 3 PV (M)194.47200.05205.74
Year 4 PV (M)202.87210.67218.70
Year 5 PV (M)211.13221.33231.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,754.457,080.697,419.42
Equity Value (M)7,726.108,081.158,449.44
Shares Outstanding (M)379.69379.69379.69
Fair Value$20.35$21.28$22.25
Upside / Downside96.22%105.24%114.59%

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