Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sinomine Resource Group Co., Ltd. (002738.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.60 - $30.85$18.79
Multi-Stage$8.79 - $9.61$9.19
Blended Fair Value$13.99
Current Price$49.50
Upside-71.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS126.66%50.99%1.150.710.050.020.020.020.010.030.020.02
YoY Growth--63.20%1,464.23%101.97%16.04%0.00%44.51%-50.03%54.43%-30.77%33.33%
Dividend Yield--3.59%1.82%0.09%0.05%0.16%0.25%0.14%0.19%0.12%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)331.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0951.9331.16
Cash Retained (M)331.83331.83331.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.09-51.93-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.75279.90300.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)721.49721.49721.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.60$18.79$30.85
Upside / Downside-74.54%-62.04%-37.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.44442.45471.21501.83534.45569.19586.27
Payout Ratio20.13%34.10%48.08%62.05%76.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.61150.88226.53311.39406.32512.27542.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)136.67137.97139.26
Year 2 PV (M)185.89189.43193.00
Year 3 PV (M)231.47238.11244.88
Year 4 PV (M)273.60284.12294.94
Year 5 PV (M)312.47327.56343.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,204.465,455.845,716.84
Equity Value (M)6,344.556,633.036,932.16
Shares Outstanding (M)721.49721.49721.49
Fair Value$8.79$9.19$9.61
Upside / Downside-82.24%-81.43%-80.59%

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