Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd (002728.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.89 - $3.20$2.46
Multi-Stage$2.26 - $2.48$2.37
Blended Fair Value$2.41
Current Price$8.61
Upside-71.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.00%27.15%0.350.290.290.270.320.290.230.060.060.03
YoY Growth--22.34%0.95%6.67%-15.60%9.42%26.51%271.10%6.23%72.91%5.32%
Dividend Yield--4.43%2.47%2.50%3.07%5.56%3.76%2.70%0.66%0.38%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.949.965.98
Cash Retained (M)72.0772.0772.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.94-9.96-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.1362.1066.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)517.69517.69517.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate2.00%3.00%4.00%
Fair Value$1.89$2.46$3.20
Upside / Downside-78.00%-71.39%-62.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7082.0984.5587.0989.7092.3995.16
Payout Ratio9.58%25.66%41.75%57.83%73.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.6421.0735.3050.3766.3083.1588.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate2.00%3.00%4.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.2119.3919.58
Year 2 PV (M)29.3429.9130.50
Year 3 PV (M)38.1639.2940.44
Year 4 PV (M)45.7947.6149.49
Year 5 PV (M)52.3554.9757.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)984.131,033.331,084.48
Equity Value (M)1,168.971,224.511,282.18
Shares Outstanding (M)517.69517.69517.69
Fair Value$2.26$2.37$2.48
Upside / Downside-73.77%-72.53%-71.23%

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