Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Harbin Boshi Automation Co., Ltd. (002698.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.38 - $95.88$89.85
Multi-Stage$57.73 - $63.35$60.49
Blended Fair Value$75.17
Current Price$17.45
Upside330.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.91%18.24%0.250.250.250.200.180.090.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--0.54%0.00%25.00%11.11%92.86%75.00%14.29%0.00%-0.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.49%1.53%1.96%1.27%1.03%0.74%0.84%0.59%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)493.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)237.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.7261.7037.02
Cash Retained (M)237.28237.28237.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.72-61.70-37.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.55175.57200.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.881,023.881,023.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.38$89.85$95.88
Upside / Downside366.36%414.92%449.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)493.62525.71559.88596.27635.03676.31696.60
Payout Ratio51.93%59.55%67.16%74.77%82.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.35313.04376.01445.85523.18608.68644.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)305.48308.37311.27
Year 2 PV (M)358.07364.89371.77
Year 3 PV (M)414.32426.22438.34
Year 4 PV (M)474.44492.69511.46
Year 5 PV (M)538.65564.66591.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,021.7459,775.9162,635.49
Equity Value (M)59,112.7061,932.7464,860.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.881,023.881,023.88
Fair Value$57.73$60.49$63.35
Upside / Downside230.85%246.64%263.02%

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