Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Giuseppe Garment Co., Ltd (002687.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.89 - $3.59$2.57
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.72$1.64
Blended Fair Value$2.11
Current Price$4.52
Upside-53.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.82%7.36%0.200.150.140.130.000.100.110.110.110.14
YoY Growth--31.73%11.86%1.84%340,268.75%-99.96%-1.37%0.00%0.00%-25.00%44.00%
Dividend Yield--4.61%2.60%2.91%3.13%0.00%2.93%2.18%2.22%1.54%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.867.414.45
Cash Retained (M)48.4948.4948.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.86-7.41-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.6341.0844.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.58500.58500.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$1.89$2.57$3.59
Upside / Downside-58.24%-43.05%-20.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.3162.7066.2970.0974.1078.3480.69
Payout Ratio18.23%32.59%46.94%61.29%75.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8120.4331.1242.9656.0570.5174.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)18.4018.5818.75
Year 2 PV (M)25.2425.7326.21
Year 3 PV (M)31.3832.2933.22
Year 4 PV (M)36.8838.3139.78
Year 5 PV (M)41.7843.8145.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)633.35664.17696.18
Equity Value (M)787.03822.88860.07
Shares Outstanding (M)500.58500.58500.58
Fair Value$1.57$1.64$1.72
Upside / Downside-65.22%-63.63%-61.99%

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